The Pitching Situation:
Obviously we have to get Jon Lester into our rotation. He’s a young kid with great stuff and he has proven he knows how to use it at the major league level.
Just to be safe, I think we should hold on to Tavarez until Lester gets going. You never know what might happen. But by the trade deadline, I expect him to be moved for maybe a "Dave Roberts" type acquisition. we do have a lot of starting pitching depth in the minors for us to draw on (Hansack, gab bard, Pauley) so I wouldn't be too upset if the sox moved Tavarez sooner than later after Lester comes back.
And somebody up above me suggested sending Snyder down. We can't do that and we shouldn't do that. We can't because he's out of options meaning he'd have to clear waivers before we could send him down. And we shouldn't because he's been pretty good out of the pen this year. Somebody else suggested sending Pineiro down. That’s a move I could agree with, but does he have options on his contract or would we have to sneak him through waivers? Although I wouldn't mind seeing him go for good. Although, he'd probably be another David Riske and he'd go on a 14 inning scoreless streak for whatever borderline team would pick him up. GAMBLING ALERT: if any of our relievers go on waivers in an attempt to make a roster spot, I’ll bet you any money the tigers pick them up. Any takers?
Even though Tavarez is going to be the guy pushed out of our rotation to make room for Lester, the starter I’m most worried about is
The rest of our rotation has been pretty solid. If we ignore the expectations placed onto Daisuke by some and treat the Dice Man for what he really is (a quasi-rookie #3 starter) he's doing extremely well. We didn't need this guy to step in and be our ace. What we wanted to see was continuing improvement as he adapts to American style baseball. His stuff is absolutely nasty (that's not filthy, THAT'S NASTY!...thanks BBTN) and once he learns to trust it he'll do a lot better. One area of his game that he really needs to improve on is pitching out of the stretch. Dice really loses a lot on his control when he's pitching out of the stretch. In Japan, pitchers hardly do this so he really doesn't have a lot of experience. In time, he'll learn how to pitch effectively with runners on and this will markedly improve his game. But really, look at what our #3 starter has done so far: 7-2 record, 4.83 ERA, and 3.24 K/BB, which will improve once he learns to pitch out of the stretch. That's not too shabby for a #3 starter.
Now onto our second ace, Mr. Josh Beckett. This guy has pretty much made the strongest case to be the starter at the All-Star Game this summer. I don't know if there is anyone out there who is pitching better right now. His curveball is buckling knees, his changeup is wrapping guys up, and his fastball is blowing everyone away. One minor injury hasn't seemed to slow Beckett down, and so may we all pray for the strength of Josh Beckett's finger skin. I really don't know what else to say about Beckett. He's been lights out this year. Absolutely electric.
Remember how I said we have two legitimate aces this year? Does anyone recall the last time we had two legitimate aces? That's right folks, 2004. Pedro Martinez and Curt Schilling. What else did we have that year? A lights out closer. What do we have this year? A lights out closer. Papelbon is having another amazing year at the back end of the bullpen. It's obvious that the Sox are treating him a little more carefully this year, and it hasn't effected his game. A 1.77 ERA, only 10 walks and 28 strikeouts in 20.1 innings, and 13 saves in 14 opportunities has once again cemented Papelbon as one of the best closers in the game.
But Papelbon isn't all we've got in the pen. Hideki Okajima has pretty much blown every expectation out of the water. Here's a guy that was basically thrown onto the team to make Dice feel a little more comfortable in his surroundings. Nobody expected him to be be the best setup man in all of baseball. His "okie-dokie" is probably the nastiest offspeed pitch in any bullpen on any team, and when Papelbon is getting his rest, Okie has been able to step in and save the game without breaking a sweat.
But Okie isn't all we've got in the pen, either. Brenden Donnelly and Kyle Snyder have both pitched very well. JC Romero and Javier Lopez have done well as lefty specialists, although Romero does make me a little nervous sometimes. The guy that really gets me shaking in my boots is Piniero. I can't believe we actually thought this guy would be our closer. He sucks. Plain and simple. Hopefully Mike Timlin can come back and be healthy. He's been such a workhorse for us over the years and I hate to see him struggle with injuries and his command like he has recently.
Just for kicks, I'd like to mention that we've got some pretty reliable arms down in the farm as well. Manny Delcarman and Craig Hansen are both arms of the future that will either supply great innings out of the bullpen, or great trade bait. Kason Gabbard was called up to spot start for us this year and pitched brilliantly. Devern Hansack didn't fare as well as Gabbard, but he has shown flares of competency in the past as has a kid by the name of David Pauley. This may be the deepest we've ever been as far as pitching goes.
The Position Players:
Except for 2004, I don't know if there's a team with more likable personalities than this one. That being said, let's take a look at how this team has been underachieving, overachieving, and yet still at the top of the majors.
Julio Lugo was bought in the offseason to step in and fill the shoes of Johnny Damon that have been empty since he left in the '05 offseason. So far this year Lugo has been underachieving. A .283 OBP doesn't really make anybody an elite leadoff man, but we're getting by. What Lugo does bring us is good defense and a threat on the basepaths. He's 16 for 16 in stolen bases (obviously well above the Moneyball threshold of 80%) and it does seem that when Lugo gets a hit, it's in a timely situation.
With the leadoff situation in mind, let's take a look at Coco Crisp. Obviously our expectations of Coco were set too high when we got him last year. We thought he could step in and pretty much replace the fallen one (Damon) who was at the time the best leadoff hitter in baseball.
If you ask me, the guys who have really been carrying the team so far this season are Mike Lowell and Kevin Youkilis. Both are off to awesome tears and have really been playing well. Lowell is still showing off his gold-glove caliber play at third, and his presence behind the plate is being felt by all our opponents. It's not Manny, Papi, or J.D. Drew who leads the team in RBI's; it's Mike Lowell. Yooooouuuuuk is doing just as well. Here's a guy who had a 23 game hitting streak on the line yesterday, and yet he drew 3 walks. He didn't selfishly reach for pitches so he could keep his streak going. What Youk wanted to do was win the game. That's all. He didn't care about himself he cared about the team. It's a real shame that the All-Star game is being played in an NL park this year and Youk isn't on the ballot for the Sox. Both these guys are All-Stars.
The argument could be made that the Sox are relying too heavily on Youkilis and Lowell, since both those guys are typically better in the first half than in the second. Worried? No. Because two other guys on our team have yet to really get going. And those two guys are Big Papi and Manny Ramirez. Just like past seasons, their bats will continue to heat up with the summer. Manny has shown signs of life as he's boosted his average to .284 and with Papi's hamstring woes hopefully past him his power should soon return. So if Lowell and Youkilis tail off as they have in the past, they will be picked up by the resurgence of David Ortiz and Manny Ramirez, the most feared 3-4 combo in all the bigs.
Three feel-good stories surround Dustin Pedroia, Alex Cora, and Jason Varitek. Pedroia is the first rookie position player to start the season since Shea Hillenbrand in 2001. After a slow start, Pedroia is making Francona look like a genius. He's now hitting .333 with an OBP of .411 and SLG. .465. If Pedroia can keep this up he'll be making a very legitimate case for Rookie of the Year.
Pedroia's partner in crime Alex Cora is off to a great start as well. However, I've made this argument before and I'll make it again. There is only so much good baseball in Alex Cora. If we make him play everyday, he has to spread that good baseball out and so it won't be as good. But if we only play Cora once in a while (to spell the rookie Pedroia or the tired legs of Lugo, just as Francona has been doing) he gets to use that good baseball all at once. It's proven a good strategy.
And now to my favorite player, the Captain: Jason Varitek. After a year of injury slowed Varitek down, and a slow start this season had many worried, Varitek has climbed back into his old form. Six home runs and a .276 average to go along with a .374 OBP and .469 SLG have got to make the Captain feel good. His importance to our pitchers was never made so painfully aware than last season when he went on the DL. Even Josh Beckett said this spring that one way he knows he will improve is by listening to Varitek more often. Varitek is the glue of the Red Sox.
And now for the underachievers. After getting off to a terrific start, J.D. Drew has pretty much sucked. The guy took a near .400 average and dropped it down to .222. Sure, he's on base at a clip of .340, but where's the fearsome #5 hitter I was told we were getting? He was here in April, but apparently those April showers didn't bring May flowers, they brought a slumping J.D. Drew. Hopefully his hamstring rehab will bring back memories of his swing. In the mean time we're stuck with Swing-and-a-miss Wily Mo Pena. Here's a guy that makes me angry every time I hear his name. He has more potential than any guy on our team, and yet he wastes it away. If he could learn patience at the plate, and how to track down a fly ball, he'd be an MVP every year. When he figures out how to play this game, Wily Mo will be a dangerous, dangerous threat. I only hope that time comes sooner rather than later, or that some other GM thinks his team can solve Pena's problem and will give us a sweet trade package.
Another underachiever is Doug Mirabelli, but Dougie isn't all that bad. He took a big cut in pay, which was good of him because his numbers don't deserve top dollar. He's a great clubhouse presence and bench guy. He plays great defense and knows how to catch Wake which is a quality that is pretty valuable. Except, of course, for his last outing. That was probably the worst performance I've ever seen by Dougie and Wake. I really hope this battery can figure their problems out and be that consistent presence they've been in the past.
The last guy to talk about his Eric Hinske. I really feel bad for the former ROY because he's not as good as anybody (including himself) thought he was. I've seen him play and he hits with a heck of a lot of power. I'd characterize Hinske as a top of the line bench player, but low order everyday guy. He's shown he'll really lay out for the team, and he can play all four corners which adds a lot of value to him as a bench guy. All in all, I'm glad he's with us.
This is our team. This is the team that's given us a Major League leading 37-17 record. This is the team that's never lost more than two games in a row. This is the team that's buried the Yankees. This is the team that has striking similarities to 2004. Hopefully, they achieve one more similarity when they are crowned 2007 World Champions. But let's not give too much thought to that just yet.
-Flig
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